How right he was.

The pair go into the final race of season at Abu Dhabi this weekend with only 12 points separating them. Rosberg will win his first world championship no matter where Hamilton finishes provided he is also on the podium.

It's obviously a calculation that Rosberg has been making over recent weeks as he ran risk-averse grands prix to finish second in the United States, Mexico and Brazil in the wake of his stunning win in Japan that set up the opportunity.

He's even joked about his one-race-at-a-time mantra, saying that with the stakes so high this weekend it's a strategy that's "not as crazy as it sounds".

"I have to treat this like any other race," Rosberg told the team website. "Doing a good job on a grand prix weekend is always a challenge. Nothing in this sport is easy, so this won't be any different and I still have to go all out for a good result.

"I have great memories from winning at this track last year and it's somewhere I've usually been strong in the past, so I have every reason to feel confident. The closer it gets, the more I'm feeling excited. It will be a big battle and hopefully the fans will get a great show to end the year."

For his part Hamilton is talking down his chances of ruining Rosberg's coronation. On his best days Hamilton has looked every bit a world champion, but he's had less luck with reliability while both men have won nine races.

"I can't and won't give up," he told mercedesamgf1.com. "You never know what might happen - however unlikely it may seem. It's not been a perfect season and I'm faced with pretty impossible odds no matter what I do this weekend.

"I'll be proud of myself and what I've achieved as long as I feel I've given my all and performed at my best. And, whatever happens, I'm proud of everyone who's been a part of the success we've shared over the past few years."

The Mercedes team is maintaining its usual neutral stance on the issue, with chief Toto Wolff indicating that both would be a worthy champion. "As a group, we now have one very important final duty this season – to give Nico and Lewis the platform they need to battle it out to the flag," he said.

"After such a battle of endurance, the winner can say without doubt that they earned it. We are all excited to see who that will be. May the best man win."

Rosberg knew before the season began that the margin would be tight. "The reality is that he's beaten me over the last three years, you know, so he has just done a better job and he has driven better than me so the odds are in his favour for a fourth year," Rosberg conceded at the time, adding: "I want to try and do better than in previous years and win more races and see how far it goes".

On Sunday he finds out.