The first weekend of winter is traditionally when the property market begins to cool off as quickly as the weather. This year, however, some experts believe that it will power on through the colder months, although perhaps not quite as vigorously as before.
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"Clearance rates are down from their previous record-breaking levels of nearly 90 per cent, but they've still been very strong in the mid to high-80s," says Domain Group senior economist Dr Andrew Wilson. "Then last weekend [May 30] we had the second-highest number of auctions of the year at over 800, with a clearance rate of 87.4 per cent, and we have 300 this week [June 6] which is very good for a holiday weekend.
"We're getting a sense that the market is starting to ease a little as winter comes, but we haven't yet felt the full force of the cut in interest rates. That usually takes a month or so, and there might be another cut to come. That will probably keep the market elevated."
Winter's conventionally been considered a good time to buy as there tend to be fewer purchasers around, and thus less competition for property (see Box). But there'll still be price growth. Wilson predicts it will be of about 3 to 4 per cent over next three months, adding up to 10 to 12 per cent over the year.
Fewer properties are coming on to the market, as people tend not to want to move house in winter, says David Milton, managing director of CBRE residential projects. That will put more upward pressure on prices.
"But there's a little bit more supply of off-the-plan projects which gives people more choice," he says. "When you have good-quality product like Darling Square, which sold out in five hours recently, then you'll always have a lot of buyers."
That balance of demand and supply will ultimately determine how busy winter will be in the property market, believes Malcolm Gunning, president of the Real Estate Institute of NSW. "The volume [of property for sale] is down 20 per cent on this time last year," he says.
"There's concern in the marketplace about selling before purchase so that can slow things down. I think we're at the point where the curve has started to flatten out as winter comes in."
The new APRA regulations on banks' lending to housing investors also come in on July 1, which will knock most speculator investors, looking for short-term profit, out of the market, Gunning says. But record low interest rates will continue to encourage owner occupiers to buy.
"It's such an incredibly mixed market at the moment, it's hard to know what's going to happen, and even what 'normal' is anymore!" says House Search Australia buyers agent Jacque Parker.
In addition, a lot of vendors are fighting shy of the hype of the market, and choosing to sell quietly off-market instead, believes Chris Curtis, which, he says, further obscures the outlook.
Another complicating factor is that winter is when less-expensive property comes on to the market. This is usually because vendors don't want to wait for the peak spring season, or when they have to sell, for instance because they're moving for work, getting a divorce, or needing to cash in.
"That can, on the surface, look like a weakening of price growth through winter," Wilson says. "But, in fact, that's purely seasonal, rather than anything real."
Why winter can be the best time to buy
1. There are normally fewer buyers around, which means less competition for properties, says Jacque Parker of House Search Australia. "Although there's nothing normal about this market at the moment! There might still be lots of people out looking at houses in the cold."
2. Winter is the perfect time to examine a property's liveability, says Dennis Kalofonos, principal of Sydney Property Finders. "Winter can mean moisture and condensation in rooms so you can check the ventilation, and you can see – and smell – mould and damp."
3. You'll be able to test its thermal efficiency, agrees Curtis Associates principal Chris Curtis. "It's the best tell-tale season for doing all your checks, as that's when it'll be at its worst with cold south-facing rooms."
4. It's as good a time as any, says EPS Property Search director Patrick Bright. "If you're ready to buy, then any time is a good time."
5. You can see how much direct sunlight a house gets in winter, Kalofonos says. "The sun's low on the horizon, so you can check its trajectory and see how much light and heat comes in."
6. Bear in mind, if it's north-facing and there's lots of light coming in, the effect on your furniture, Curtis warns. "It can get absolutely zapped in winter with that low angle, and everything fades."
7. You can gauge how warm a house is in winter, Parker says. "You'll know if it has a good heating system, and is well-insulated."
8. If there's lots of rain, you can check how well the water drains away, Kalofonos says. If there's welling of water, or mould on pavers, then you know it might get waterlogged.
9. Do an inspection in the late afternoon in winter as then you'll see it in its worst light, Curtis says. Turn off the lights and see how bright it still is, and feel how chilly.
10. Bear in mind, not all available property will be on the market in winter, advises Bright. "If there's a house in a valley, or one that doesn't get much light in the winter, agents will tell the owners to wait till spring or summer to sell."
Case study: Fire adds to terrace's appeal
The first thing all the visitors to a three-bedroom house sold in Newtown remark on is the Jetmaster fire burning away in the fireplace.
"I think it just makes everyone feel warm as soon as they walk in," Phillip Dows says.
"They all say it's not often you see a fireplace that works in a terrace, so it's become a bit of a drawcard. In winter especially, it makes the house feel so cosy."
Dows, 54, together with his partner Alan Bond, 51, renovated the period terrace at 130 Station Street to make the most of the natural light, preserving the traditional features of the house but making it feel much more contemporary, with gas heaters throughout.
It's made it, they feel, the perfect winter home. "The courtyard is very sunny in the winter and gets the morning sun, and it streams through to the kitchen and family room," says Bond. "Then the afternoon sun warms up the front of the house and the master bedroom nicely."
Dows has owned the two-level house since 1990, both living there and renting it out to families who've often used the study for a fourth bedroom for a child.
The terrace has a formal dining room – with that fire – an open-plan lounge and kitchen, a downstairs toilet as well as the main bathroom upstairs and parking for one car.
Feature property:
6/1 St Neot Avenue, Potts Point
Price guide: $1.28 million
On the first day of winter this week, artist Sian Faber awoke to see an extraordinary double-rainbow arching over Sydney.
"That's one of the reasons I love our apartment so much," she says. "Since we have such fabulous views over the harbour, Opera House, bridge and the city, you can sit here and just marvel at what Mother Nature does all the time.
"We have glorious sunrises, with the light reflecting off the Renzo Piano building, sunsets, we can watch the storms coming in, and the lorikeets and cockatoos ... and then there are the manmade sights like VIVID and the fireworks. It's like watching a movie."
Faber, 49, is now auctioning the two-bedroom apartment she shares with her partner in Potts Point on June 20 through Kim Hayes of Ray White Double Bay (Ph 0419 230 086), to move somewhere with an artist's studio attached.
She says it's an absolute idyll during winter, warm with light flooding in from all the windows, and the all-weather protected balcony enabling them still to have breakfast outside every day and alfresco dinner parties in the evening.
On the top floor of a small block in a quiet cul de sac, the views even improve in winter when the trees lose their leaves. "It can be like living in a tree house," Faber says.
Or try these:
4 Burnett Street, Hurlstone Park
Price guide: About $1.4 million
Surrounded by parkland, this warm double brick four-bedroom, two-bathroom house on a 545 sq m block, close to Cooks River and the cycleway, has roomy open-plan dining and living with a fireplace. It also has a terrace with natural gas heating and a barbecue deck, complete with outdoor speakers. For auction June 16 via Firmstone Properties' Steve Pappas (Phone 0438 355 555).
40 Crystal Street, Petersham
Price guide: About $750,000
This cosy two-bedroom home has had a complete renovation, but many of the character features, such as the heritage-style fireplace and polished timber floors, have been carefully preserved. While the house is only 107 sq m it has a separate laundry and a paved courtyard, as well as a modern kitchen and bathroom. For auction June 17 via Ben Ayers of Raine&Horne Marrickville (Phone 0404 097 094).
34 Torokina Avenue, St Ives
Price guide: Around $2.5 million
The gas fireplace is a focal point of this six-bedroom, four-bathroom full brick house within an easy walk to the local village and schools. As well as the casual loungeroom, there's also a formal lounge as well as a family room, and a large outdoor entertainment area and pool outside. For auction June 20 via Chadwick Real Estate agent Tracey McDonald (Phone 0406 671 366).