Treasurer Dr Jim Chalmers hinted that might not be the case during his speech to the Committee for Economic Development of Australia in Sydney on Thursday.

Dr Chalmers warned that as a result of a sharp slump in the price of iron ore and slowing economic growth the $69 billion of additional revenue he had forecast in the MYEFO last December was no longer on the table.

While the Treasurer was coy about what the actual amount of any revenue upgrade might be, it now seems possible a second surplus could be out of reach.

"There'll [still] be revenue upgrades and we'll bank what we can from them. We are still shooting for a second surplus," he said.

That's not quite the same as saying you are expecting one.

If one takes the Treasurer, whose doctorate is in political science not economics, at his word, the message is clear. With less money coming in, revised stage-three cuts already baked into the budget, commitments to Indigenous housing, the NDIS bleeding money, the pledge to pay superannuation on government funded parental leave, increased defence spending and the new ASEAN investment fund, don't expect many sweeteners in this year's budget.

For most Australians a tax cut that works out at less than $25 a week for low and middle income earners is as good as it gets. Ouch. But is this necessarily the case? A cynic might suggest otherwise, given all governments have form when it comes to under-promising and over-delivering on revenue upgrades and the like.

It is not out of the question that, in addition to managing voter expectations in order to roll out some unexpected good news on budget night, he is also warning Labor backbenchers, some of whom are of the view more of the previous revenue windfalls driven by high resource prices should have been spent on COL relief rather than banked, not to get their hopes up.

This government has, to date, presented a surprisingly united front. Mr Albanese and Dr Chalmers want to keep it that way.

Talking down the possibility of a second back-to-back surplus is also a clever strategy. While the Albanese government was happy to take the credit for the last budget surplus the truth is that fell off the back of a truck which had been driven by Josh Frydenberg right up until May 21, 2022.

The Treasurer would receive far more kudos for a "miracle surplus" delivered in the face of difficult economic circumstances than for one which everybody had seen coming for a year or more.

The reality is that the government, its desire to promote itself as fiscally responsible not withstanding, has done not nearly enough to assist those doing it toughest as a result of cost-of-living crisis.

Only a few days ago Outlook Economics' director Peter Downes was quoted as saying: "It [the COL] is really something mainly faced by low income, non-property-owning households facing higher food prices, rents and utility bills".

The Treasurer's sudden preoccupation with tackling the economic slowdown in addition to slaying the inflation dragon opens the door for some form of direct assistance to those at the bottom of the income and asset pyramid. If economic stimulus is now called for then it would make sense to deliver it to those who need it most.